fbpx

Economic and Market Report

Outlook 2022

LET US START WITH A PUZZLE: What do the two rather tricky charts below show? Without specific information one cannot interpret the two-inverse developments. In a sense they stand for the situation we are currently facing, while writing about the outlook for the year just started.

Read more »

Review 2021

In this EMR, we take a look back at our forecasts and assumptions for 2021, and find that our preference for equities has been rewarded by an acceptable, differential rate of earnings growth.

Read more »

Rythm of History

Studying the literature on economic change, while focusing on the post-World War I period, is very instructive, especially as a guide to the current turbulent environment. The available forecasts reveal major economic and social imbalances. We consider them quite significant, especially in the context of current uncertain developments.

Read more »

Required Homework

The investment outlook is rather bleak, driven mostly – but not solely – by lagging productivity, fears of rising inflation, and high and rising governmental indebtedness, as well “unwarranted” fears of an impending equity market correction.

Read more »

Inflation

A look at the following chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI, referred to here as Pdot) raises some questions, doesn’t it?

Read more »

Global minimum tax deal

The introduction of a global minimum tax for companies is being hotly debated in OECD circles. Therefore we ask ourselves the following questions in this EMR: Which influences will it have on production, consumption and international trade? Will inflation be driven by this tax? What does a cyclical comparison say about this? What effects can be expected for large and small countries? Which asset classes are promising?

Read more »

Types of distortions

Not only as a result of the COVID 19 pandemic, investors and also the public at large, are experiencing a trend reversal, away from free trade via the introduction of a new global minimum tax rate of 15%, with the aim of generating even higher revenues for the government.

Read more »

Will interest rates go up?

The high level of monetary and fiscal policy interventions by the USA and also by European countries are the cause of rising inflation and interest rate expectations. They cloud the prospects for the long-awaited economic recovery.

Read more »

Implications of Economic Data

In today’s context, economic forecasting is an attempt to predict the whereabouts of the investment environment. Every analyst uses a combination of important and widely followed indicators. In this EMR, we set the focus on real GDP and its major components using them as a guide to find out what the most promising investment strategy might be!

Read more »